Despite a peace deal and election promises in 2020, violence is on the rise and anti-government protests are taking place. However, analysts say the situation is complicated and the likelihood of a military coup remains low.
Thousands of people took to the streets in Sudan’s cities this week, the largest protest in Sudan in two years. The protests are part of what Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok called “the worst and most dangerous crisis” in Sudan since the ouster of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019.
Yesterday, most of the protesters expressed their opposition to the return of the military regime. Earlier this week, other groups staged the exact opposite: They want to lead the army.
This sounds like a simple argument. But experts warn: The situation is more complicated.
“Sudanese politics is like a chess game in which not every player has equal parts, some of which are five steps ahead,” said Dan Watson, a researcher at the University of Sussex in the UK. Conflict location and event information project. “It’s all disruptive,” he told DW.
An attempt at a coup in September
Former Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir, an army officer himself, has ruled the country for 30 years, and after weeks of protests, he led the Sudanese army for 30 years until it came to power in 2019. Initially, the military refused to relinquish power. But as popular protests continued, they agreed to participate in a transitional government made up of civilian forces under the banner of the Freedom and Change Force (FFC).
The transitional government must be held accountable until democratic elections are held in 2023. But now there is growing division and competition between civilian and military components.
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You can see the current problem caused by the military coup attempt in September. “But this [coup attempt] is not considered very reliable,” Watson explained. Many believe it was produced or used by the military.
Watson noted that the Sudanese army, which includes many former allies of al-Bashir’s dictatorship, still maintains most of its forces on the ground. Military leaders remain deeply involved in the country’s economic and political life.
Decades of corruption
“Corruption and violence have long been tools of regulating Sudan’s economic life, allowing political and military leaders to control the flow of rents and resources,” the researchers wrote in a 2021 report at the London School of Economics’ Sudanese Political Market. The country is marked by “a pattern of political transactions that exemplifies the military.”
In 2018, protesters called for an end to this type of corruption and set up special committees to stop it. However, this has not led to significant changes, and military leaders remain well connected to the country’s wealth and power.
“Theoretically, the Sudanese army can seize power right now without major opposition from the armed forces,” said Theodore Murphy, director of the Council of Europe’s Africa program. will face. “
He said a large protest rally on Thursday showed a network of protesters who had previously opposed al-Bashir’s regime. This will come from the international community, which has said that Sudan’s debt relief and international aid are linked to the transition to democracy.
Ordinary people are being pushed aside
Longtime Sudanese observers say the army is looking for excuses to bypass the civilian composition of the transitional government.
“They are using instability and the economic crisis to discredit government civilians,” Watson said. “It’s a bit pointless, though, because it has so much to do with governing the country.”
Sudan’s most important port in eastern Sudan continues to be closed by local tribes, leading to shortages of essential goods. Fiscal reforms have worsened the economy and pushed up inflation. Despite a nationwide peace deal with the rebels last year, the death toll from political violence has risen in the past 12 months.
In addition, the transitional government failed to reach an agreement on legislation, and a separate section of the civilian IFC split and now sided with the military bloc. The group includes two former rebel factions and a political party.
Tufts professor Alex de Waal said that in addition to the city centers, rural leaders who were part of al-Bashir’s “mercenary sponsorship” system saw the desire to change the pro-democracy system as an “attack on the constituency.” University of Massachusetts, Sudanese specialist. This is causing problems such as the blockade of the port in eastern Sudan.
The military “does not deceive anyone”
At the same time, pro-democracy activists have joined forces. “If a civic bloc is not doing a good job or has many internal problems, their constituency is very difficult. If those who oppose al-Bashir and call for democracy are very difficult to work in their constituency, hold them accountable,” Murphy told DW. We are giving the military the opportunity to say that we have no choice but to take action because the country is in a very uncomfortable situation. So there is a deadlock. “
However, experts believe that the so-called “hard” coup in Sudan is unlikely.
“More likely, instead of locking all civilian politicians, the relationship between the two blocs will be reorganized,” Watson suggested.
He explained that this could take the form of the dissolution of the ordinary FFC and the replacement of a new military group that had split in the last three weeks.
“What the military wants to do is keep [the technocratic prime minister] Hamdok in office, but transfer him to a position where they pull the strings,” de Waal said.
However, de Waal, who has written more than a dozen books on the field, added that there are some reasons to be optimistic. “Every previous transition to Sudan ended in a military coup. But this time, they [the military] admit they can’t do it. It will make them legal.”
“The military will not deceive anyone, the domestic population or the international community,” de Waal concluded. “Everyone knows the game they’re playing and they’ll resist. In fact, they already know.”