Despite the recent announcement of COP26 three times, leaving a “huge gap of confidence” at the Glasgow summit, analysts warn that global temperatures are still on the path to catastrophic growth.
In its annual report, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) Group said the government’s current actions and the promises made by 2030 would increase to 2.4C by the end of the century.
The CAT said every country should be in “emergency mode” instead of taking “child steps” and suggested an annual COP aimed at short-term activities like Glasgow.
The decision that no government is doing enough to prevent the catastrophe of humanity comes at a time when the summit is in the final stages of negotiations before the end of Friday.
COP26 requires a very quick and quick plan to keep the temperature rise below 2C, preferably below 1.5C, to avoid the worst-case scenarios such as floods, fires, droughts, famines, ice melts, and sea surges.
Greenhouse gas emissions need to be halved by 2030 to maintain 1.5 degrees Celsius, but the government’s goal is to close the gap by only 15-17 percent.
CAT said a handful of countries, including South Africa and Morocco, have set ambitious targets for 2030, while India’s commitment package is expected to make little change by then.
Australia also suggested “nothing new” and Brazil’s latest targets were set back.
Although 140 countries, which account for 90 percent of the world’s emissions, have announced long-term net zero targets, experts say they run the risk of simply being “lip-synching for real climate action.”
The CAT report said that if all the pure zero promises were fulfilled, they could limit the temperature rise to 1.8C, but this is very large given the inactivity and setbacks so far.
Many countries are skeptical because they have not made short-term plans.
If current climate change policies continue for a long time, global warming will be worse than previously thought, bringing global temperatures to 2.7 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
CAT said it was “a long and dark shadow that casts doubt on the pure zero goal.”
To curb dangerous global warming, the world needs to set ambitious new goals by 2030 before Glasgow.
However, the analysis shows that the recent targets are still not fully met.
It is possible to reduce global warming to 2.1C in line with the long-term goals of some countries, which are mandatory or submitted to the UN process, in particular the US Pure Zero Goal by 2050 and the China Neutrality Goal by 2060.
Despite warnings that more developed economies should stop using fossil fuels by 2030 and fossil fuels by 2040, CAT said the increase in natural gas consumption since the Paris Agreement is the cause of the current “terrible situation”.
There have been reports of COP26 cutting methane and ending deforestation, but the analysis suggests that these must go beyond existing national targets in order to have an impact.
Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, one of the analysis partners, said: “Most of the measures and targets to be implemented by 2030 are not in line with the net zero target: there is almost a one-degree gap between the government’s current policies and their net zero targets.
“It’s great to say that leaders have pure zero goals, but if they have no plans on how to get there, and the goals until 2030 are as low as most of them, frankly, these are pure zero goals. These are the lips of real meteorological action. that is.
“There are a lot of differences of opinion in Glasgow,” he said.
Niklas Hohne, a professor at the NewClimate Institute, another climate activity partner, said: “The pure zero-wave wave looks like great news, but we can’t just sit back and relax. All countries need to see what else they can do.”
He said: “If it is not possible to close the huge gap in Glasgow by 2030, governments must agree to set new and stronger goals by COP27 next year.
“Today’s leaders must take responsibility for this big gap by 2030.”
Jennifer Morgan, CEO of Greenpeace International, called it a “disastrous report” and called on countries in Glasgow to agree on how to return until next year and beyond to close the 1.5-degree gap each year.
Shadow Business Secretary Ed Miliband said it was skeptical that “the government’s attempt to wash Glasgow green is an important test of reality” and that it had succeeded.
“All countries need to increase their ambitions immediately and agree to reconsider these issues before 2025, otherwise the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees will be irreversible in our hands,” he said.
Dr. Kat Kramer, Christian Idy’s climate policy chief, described the analysis as “another shout-out” that the world is far from where it should be, and that countries need to recognize the need to increase ambitions every year and end the fossil fuel era.
Lang Banks, Scottish director of the World Conservation Fund, said: “To put it bluntly, what has been promised in Glasgow so far is not enough to prevent global warming by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius and to endanger people and the environment. It is clear that this is the biggest difference from the actual smoke reduction efforts of this decade.
“Each part of global warming is important in limiting the catastrophic risk of climate change. There is no time to waste, we need to look at the pure zero promises we will make in the future by reducing emissions realistically and quickly by 2030. “
Mark Ruskell, Scottish Green Climate Representative, said: “Unlike other hypotheses, this analysis shows a real difference between ambitious goals and the steps needed to achieve them. means that things will reach catastrophic proportions.
“It is clear that the CAT is a major cause for concern about the inactivity of fossil fuels, so it is a shame that the British government is leading these talks.
“As you burn more fossil fuels and encourage more people to drive and fly, ambitious goals become meaningless. Therefore, the CAT defines these goals as “confidence in reality” of inactivity.
“Obviously, we can’t rely on the most polluting industries to lead us to a low-carbon future, so this report warns us not to listen to the way the gas industry works,” he said. It’s time for the British government to take responsibility and take concrete action before it’s too late in the final days of the agreement. “